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Volatility Machine

This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the financial collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that international capital flows are driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign capital structure model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the risks and requirements of emerging market countries. Finally, using this model, he puts into perspective the recent crises, develops a new sovereign liability management theory, assesses the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and re-examines the new financial architecture.

Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.

About THE Author

Michael Pettis is a Managing Director and head of the liability management group at Bear Steams, a New York investment bank. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University where he teaches courses in international finance and economics. He has been involved in emerging markets, both as an investment banker and as a sovereign adviser, since 1987. In addition, he has written extensively on specialized financial topics and on policy issues.

244 pages