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Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy.

Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful.

The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa.

Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals,financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.

Table of Contents    Preface   
Pt. 1    101 years of global investment returns    1
Ch. 1    Introduction and overview    3
Ch. 2    World markets: today and yesterday    11
Ch. 3    Measuring long-term returns    34
Ch. 4    International capital market history    45
Ch. 5    Inflation, interest rates, and bill returns    63
Ch. 6    Bond returns    74
Ch. 7    Exchange rates and common-currency returns    91
Ch. 8    International investment    105
Ch. 9    Size effects and seasonality in stock returns     124
Ch. 10    Value and growth in stock returns    139
Ch. 11    Equity dividends    149
Ch. 12    The equity risk premium    163
Ch. 13    The prospective risk premium    176
Ch. 14    Implications for investors    195
Ch. 15    Implications for companies    211
Ch. 16    Conclusion    220
Pt. 2    Sixteen countries, one world    225
Ch. 17    Our global database    227
Ch. 18    Australia    229
Ch. 19    Belgium    234
Ch. 20    Canada    239
Ch. 21    Denmark    244
Ch. 22    France    249
Ch. 23    Germany    254
Ch. 24    Ireland    259
Ch. 25    Italy    264
Ch. 26    Japan    269
Ch. 27    The Netherlands    274
Ch. 28    South Africa    279
Ch. 29    Spain    284
Ch. 30    Sweden    289
Ch. 31    Switzerland    294
Ch. 32    United Kingdom    299
Ch. 33    United States    306
Ch. 34    World    311
    References    316
    About the authors    331
    Index    333

352 pages, Paperback