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TRIUMPH OF THE OPTIMISTS
DIMSON E., MARSH P., STAUNTON M. wydawnictwo: PRINCETON, 2002, wydanie I cena netto: 480.00 Twoja cena 456,00 zł + 5% vat - dodaj do koszyka Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the
most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on
equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The
optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never
had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and
across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns
for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the
end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a
clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy.
Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that
some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by
survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously
overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been
successful.
The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk
premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the
United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to
other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada,
Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark,
and South Africa.
Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals,financial
economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted
for years to come.
Table of Contents Preface
Pt. 1 101 years of global investment returns 1
Ch. 1 Introduction and overview 3
Ch. 2 World markets: today and yesterday 11
Ch. 3 Measuring long-term returns 34
Ch. 4 International capital market history 45
Ch. 5 Inflation, interest rates, and bill returns 63
Ch. 6 Bond returns 74
Ch. 7 Exchange rates and common-currency returns 91
Ch. 8 International investment 105
Ch. 9 Size effects and seasonality in stock returns
124
Ch. 10 Value and growth in stock returns 139
Ch. 11 Equity dividends 149
Ch. 12 The equity risk premium 163
Ch. 13 The prospective risk premium 176
Ch. 14 Implications for investors 195
Ch. 15 Implications for companies 211
Ch. 16 Conclusion 220
Pt. 2 Sixteen countries, one world 225
Ch. 17 Our global database 227
Ch. 18 Australia 229
Ch. 19 Belgium 234
Ch. 20 Canada 239
Ch. 21 Denmark 244
Ch. 22 France 249
Ch. 23 Germany 254
Ch. 24 Ireland 259
Ch. 25 Italy 264
Ch. 26 Japan 269
Ch. 27 The Netherlands 274
Ch. 28 South Africa 279
Ch. 29 Spain 284
Ch. 30 Sweden 289
Ch. 31 Switzerland 294
Ch. 32 United Kingdom 299
Ch. 33 United States 306
Ch. 34 World 311
References 316
About the authors 331
Index 333
352 pages, Paperback
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