As far back as 2002, Joao Garcia anticipated the market turmoil that began in July
2007. In 2006 Serge Goossens joined Joao and their work in educating others and developing
policies and systems ever since has been driven by the anticipation of this crisis.
In the first part of the book the authors look at how some aspects of
quantitative modeling has led to the current credit crisis. They begin by showing
how the misuse of securitization and risk models for the credit and related asset backed
securities markets led to the credit crisis by illustrating the problems inherent in the
risk models e.g systemic risk being grossly underestimated. They also identify the sources
of the anomalies in the current regulations e.g the extreme low risk weight for the super
senior tranches of CDO's where the correlation has been underestimated and present an
algorithm to estimate these correlations and numerical results to support the claims.
They show how a mind-shift is needed within the quant community to move from simple
modelers to a more hands on mindset where the modeler understands trading implicitly. They
then go on to show the consequences of all this including the higher regulatory costs of
structured products potentially reducing market size.
The second part of this book provides groundbreaking solutions to the problems
outlined in part one:
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Why regulatory capital should be portfolio dependant and how to use stress
tests and scenario analysis to model this.
*
Using standardized credit indices as the most appropriate instrument in any
price discovery process and as the most appropriate tool for the short term management of
credit portfolio's.
*
How to put structured products in a mark to market environment and increasing
transparency for accounting and compliance.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Modelling Frameworks
Default Models: Firm Value and Intensity Based Models
Correlation Models: Copulas
Corporates
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Credit Spread Options
Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)
Standardized Credit Indices: CDX iTraxx
Cash Flow CDO
Structured Credit Products CPPI CPDO
Asset Backed Securities
ABS CDS PAUG
ABS CDO
More Standardized Credit Indices: ABX, TABX, CMBX, MCDX, LCDX, LevX
Dynamic Credit Portfolio Management
Capital Restructuring & Portfolio Optimisation
Appendix Mathematical Background
250 pages, Hardcover
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